Attorney / Lawyer

The entry rung is where AI is starting to bite. Big law firms now use AI for legal research, document review and case law, and some, like Paul, Weiss, have built tools like Harvey into everyday drafting and document analysis (Axios, May 2026). That is the work junior associates used to learn on. A law professor quoted by Axios put the problem simply: if the work that trains juniors gets automated, "there's no real material anymore for them to train on." The hiring numbers have started to move. NALP, which tracks more than 97% of new US law graduates, found firms with more than 500 lawyers hired about 540 fewer graduates from the Class of 2025 than the year before, a 7.5% drop and the first decline in Big Law entry hiring since 2014 (Above the Law). Big firms also took on fewer summer associates in 2025, which points to another weak year for 2026 graduates, and a December bank-and-consultancy report found most firms planned to favor experienced hires over new graduates through 2027.

The score sits above what the plain numbers alone would give, so here is the other side. The profession is not shrinking. The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects lawyer jobs to grow 5% from 2025 to 2035, faster than average, with about 28,700 openings a year, and says automating routine work "is not expected to reduce overall demand for lawyers." The Class of 2025 had the second-highest employment rate NALP has ever recorded (92.8%). The overall entry-level market did shrink by about 2,700 jobs, but NALP's own headline puts that on a "sharp drop in federal government and public interest hiring" (federal hiring of new graduates fell 37%), not AI. Even legal trade press says it is "far too early" to blame the Big Law drop on AI. And practicing law requires a state license, usually won by passing the bar exam, which AI can't hold.

We keep this at the low end of High (4) because the rubric weighs entry-level damage most, and that is exactly where the evidence points: fewer seats at the biggest employer of new lawyers, less junior work to train on, and firms preferring experienced hires. A 3 is defensible on the BLS numbers. What would change the score: if NALP's Class of 2026 data shows Big Law entry hiring recovering, this moves to 3. If BLS cuts its projection or entry hiring falls again outside the federal sector, it stays at 4 with less doubt.